The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media. "Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or
foreign-policy direction." Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.
Edited by Jack A. Goldstone, George Mason University, and Eric P. Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London
Jack A. Goldstone is the Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University and received his Ph.D. from Harvard University. He has won major prizes from the American Sociological Association and the Historical Society for his research on revolutions, population, and political conflict. His 2010 essay in Foreign Affairs, "The New Population Bomb" has received world-wide attention. A Phi Beta Kappa
visiting lecturer, Goldstone has authored or edited ten books and published over one hundred articles in books and scholarly journals. His latest books are Why Europe? The Rise of the West 1500-1850 (2008) and Understanding Revolutions (forthcoming).
Eric P. Kaufmann is Professor in Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London. He is the author of Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century (2010), The Rise and Fall of Anglo-America (2004), and three other books. He has written on religion and demography fo
Newsweek International, Foreign Policy, and Prospect magazines.
Monica Duffy Toft is Associate Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Initiative on Religion in International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Her current research examines the role of nationalism, religion, and rationality in relation to political violence. She is the author of The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory (2003), Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars (2010), and God's Century (2011).
PART I Political Demography and Political Science
2. A Theory of Political Demography: Human and Institutional Reproduction
PART II Population and International Security
3. Demography and Geopolitics: Understanding Today's Debate in Its Historical Context
4. America's Golden Years? Security in an Aging World
5. A New Framework for Aging and Security: Lessons from Power Transition Theory
PART III Demography, Development, and Conflict
6. Age Structure and Development through a Policy Lens
7. The Age-Structural Maturity Thesis: The Impact of the Youth Bulge on the Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy
8. Youth Bulges and Violence
9. Democracy, Climate Change, and Conflict
Part IV Demography and National Politics
10. Racial Demographics and the 2008 Presidential Election in the United States
11. Demography and Immigration Restriction in American History
12. The Changing Face of Europe
13. <"Go Forth and Multiply>": The Politics of Religious Demography
Part V Demography in Ethnic and Religious Conflicts
14. Wombfare: The Religious and Political Dimensions of Fertility and Demographic Change
15. Deter or Engage?: The Demographic Structure of EthnoNationalist Mobilization
16. Demographic Change and Conflict in Contemporary Africa
17. The Devil in the Demography? Religion, Identity and War in Cote d'Ivoire
18. Politics and Demography: A Summary of Critical Relationships
About the Contributors